- Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson, has forecasted that Bitcoin has a 10% chance at breaking $20k this year
- These odds increase to 90% for the year 2021
- Mr. Peterson has also cautioned that Bitcoin could be overpriced by 20% – 50%
- However, he is optimistic that Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below $12k and $11k
Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson, has once again shared his insightful analysis on the possible market direction of Bitcoin (BTC). According to Mr. Peterson, Bitcoin has a 10% chance of breaking the $20k price ceiling this year. These odds increase to 90% in 2021. Mr. Peterson shared his Bitcoin forecast via the following tweet.
There's a 10% chance that #bitcoin will break $20,000 this year.
There's a 90% chance that #bitcoin will break $20,000 next year.
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) November 7, 2020
Bitcoin is Overprice by 20% – 50%
In an earlier tweet, Mr. Peterson had cautioned Bitcoin traders and investors that BTC might be overpriced by a factor of 20% to 50% using his Metcalfe Model.
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) November 5, 2020
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $15,300. Therefore, and using the aforementioned percentages, Bitcoin has a Metcalfe value of between $7,650 and $12,240. This does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin will drop to these values. Mr. Peterson uses Metcalfe’s law to determine the value of Bitcoin based on network activity. His model is particularly insightful in terms of determining the value of BTC without the ‘noise’ from news and market activity.
$11k is in Bitcoin’s Rear-View Mirror, $12k Will Be in the Rear View Mirror Next Month
$11k was in the rear view mirror last month and $12k will be in the rear view mirror by next month. There’s enough data now for me to model the adoption curve. Finishing that up and I can estimate #bitcoin‘s saturation (max) price and year.
This in turn means that Bitcoin’s general trajectory is up and the King of Crypto has more or less said goodbye to 4-figure values below $10k.