According to a recent poll by the creator of the popular Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, the majority of participants believe that BTC’s price will either hit $55,000 or stay below it by the end of 2021.
Backstory: Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model(s)
A cryptocurrency analyst going by the Twitter handle PlanB revealed the first version of the BTC stock-to-flow model a few years back. He described the stock as the size of existing reserves (or stockpiles) and the flow – the annual supply of bitcoins on the market.
He added that the S2F is a direct driver of value as when the ratio grows, the price tends to increase as well. As such, PlanB concluded that following the third Bitcoin halving in May this year, BTC’s market capitalization could rise up to $1 trillion (or $55,000 per coin) by the end of December 2021.
The second update of the original version provided an even more optimistic price goal for Bitcoin – $100,000. The third one took it up a notch by predicting a $288,000 per one bitcoin.
The latest upgrade is significantly more complex and comprehensive than the original version. Apart from the “stock” and “flow,” it also takes into consideration the different phases that BTC has gone through since its inception in 2009. The “proof-of-concept” transferred into a “payment” phase, then came the “e-gold” stage, and the last one – “financial asset.”
The S2F-based Bitcoin Price Poll
The person behind the infamous Bitcoin stock-to-flow model initiated a poll over the weekend, asking the community about their perception of BTC’s price at the end of 2021.
Do you think #bitcoin will reach $288K (S2FX), $100K (S2Fv2), $55K (S2Fv1) before December 2021, or will BTC stay below $55K?
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) September 25, 2020
Out of 24,134 voters, 34.6% believe that BTC will stay below the original S2F model prediction – $55,000.
19.3% answered that BTC will top out at $55,000 in the next 15 months, while 46% envision the asset going into a fix-digit territory. 26.5% of all respondents believe that Bitcoin will end 2021 at $100,000, and 19.5% showed even more optimism by predicting $288,000 per coin.
It’s worth noting that should Bitcoin indeed skyrocket by over 2,500% to $288,000, its market cap will be north of $5 trillion. Although this may sound as quite eccentric now when BTC trades at about $11,000, such a massive market cap increase would still position it significantly lower than gold’s.
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